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February 21, 2014 |

El Salvador: Second Round Polling Gives FMLN Huge Lead

With just 16 days until the run-off election for the Salvadoran presidency, the FMLN’s lead continues to increase. In the eight polls conducted since the February 2nd election the margin of victory varies from 10 – 18%. By law, February 21st is the final date for publication of poll results.

Three major party candidates participated in the first round but none received over 50% required for victory. The FMLN was just 26,000 votes short, receiving 48.93% of the votes. ARENA was second with 38.95. The UNIDAD coalition received 11.44%.

After February 2nd the ARENA campaign continued to flounder. Some pollsters and analysts attribute the poor showing of the previously indomitable party, at least in part, to the corruption charges against a former ARENA President, Francisco Flores (1999-2004).

The run-off election is March 9th.

Polling since the February 2nd election:

Poll Dates conducted Release date FMLN ARENA
CID-Gallup February 5-9 February 12 55% 45%
CS-SONDEA February 6-9 February 13 56% 44%
UTEC  February 14-16 February 18 54.9% 45.1%
CID-Gallup February 12-16 February 18 58% 42%
IUDOP/UCA February 8-14 February 19 56.2% 41.8%
LPG Datos February 11-16 February 20 56.6% 43.4%
UFG February 15-18 February 21 53.9% 35.5%
Newlink February 18-19 February 21 48.9% 38.2%